Newsletter2019-09-12T16:45:17-06:00

News & Commentary

2018 2nd Quarter Update

Last quarter I discussed how the surge in volatility was due to the expectation for higher rates, the Trump tariffs, and the Facebook data breach.  All three of those are still contributing to market gyrations.  However the volatility has not stuck around, as measured by the VIX, which is a widely cited measure of stock market volatility.  While not yet [...]

2018 1st Quarter Update

The calm year of 2017 has given way to a new dynamic so far in 2018, one where volatility has returned.  The first quarter saw more 1% and 2% swings in the US stock market indexes than all of 2017 and in some cases 2016 combined.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10 straight months through January 2018—this streak ended [...]

2017 4th Quarter Update

2017 was arguably the calmest year ever for the stock market.  It was the first year in which the SPX total return was positive every single month (the closest was 1995 which had 11 positive months and a slightly negative October).  The stock market has set new records for the most consecutive days without a 5% correction (broken on Monday [...]

2017 3rd Quarter Update

Another quarter of upward moving stock prices and multiple records being set by all the major indexes.  The bull market is now officially the second longest in history, only being eclipsed by the 1982-1999 run.  Not only that but just last week we reached the longest stretch in history without experiencing a 5% correction (now over 360 days) and this [...]

2017 2nd Quarter Update

“The trend is your friend.” This is an old saying regarding the market and momentum. Another is, “Don’t fight the Fed.” These two axioms seem to be heading toward an Old West standoff. The major trends that continue to persist:  Low volatility; the VIX, a common gauge of market volatility had its lowest close this quarter since December 1993, has [...]

2017 1st Quarter Update

What a difference a year makes!  When we visited in April of 2016, we were coming off a volatile quarter that saw the stock market experience a 10% decline (in hindsight, the bottom of that particular correction), oil prices were only about 6 weeks removed from being just $26/bbl., the Fed had just raised rates for the first time in [...]

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