Last week I had the opportunity to hear Dr. Ben Bernanke speak. As you likely know, he was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve during 2006-2014, and notably during the financial crisis ten years ago. I thought you might be interested in a summary of what he discussed. First on the economy: The expansion is 10 years old and will [...]
Happy Halloween! Right in time for the season of spooks and specters came another October stock market selloff. October has a history of market selloffs, the most famous of which occurred in 1929 of course. October 19th was the 31st anniversary of Black Monday, the biggest one-day selloff in stock market history, in terms of percentage. And this month is [...]
Last quarter I discussed how the surge in volatility was due to the expectation for higher rates, the Trump tariffs, and the Facebook data breach. All three of those are still contributing to market gyrations. However the volatility has not stuck around, as measured by the VIX, which is a widely cited measure of stock market volatility. While not yet [...]
The calm year of 2017 has given way to a new dynamic so far in 2018, one where volatility has returned. The first quarter saw more 1% and 2% swings in the US stock market indexes than all of 2017 and in some cases 2016 combined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10 straight months through January 2018—this streak ended [...]
2017 was arguably the calmest year ever for the stock market. It was the first year in which the SPX total return was positive every single month (the closest was 1995 which had 11 positive months and a slightly negative October). The stock market has set new records for the most consecutive days without a 5% correction (broken on Monday [...]
Another quarter of upward moving stock prices and multiple records being set by all the major indexes. The bull market is now officially the second longest in history, only being eclipsed by the 1982-1999 run. Not only that but just last week we reached the longest stretch in history without experiencing a 5% correction (now over 360 days) and this [...]
“The trend is your friend.” This is an old saying regarding the market and momentum. Another is, “Don’t fight the Fed.” These two axioms seem to be heading toward an Old West standoff. The major trends that continue to persist: Low volatility; the VIX, a common gauge of market volatility had its lowest close this quarter since December 1993, has [...]
What a difference a year makes! When we visited in April of 2016, we were coming off a volatile quarter that saw the stock market experience a 10% decline (in hindsight, the bottom of that particular correction), oil prices were only about 6 weeks removed from being just $26/bbl., the Fed had just raised rates for the first time in [...]
Welcome to 2017! Looking back at 2016 it really was the year of surprises. Of course the biggest in this country was the results of the Presidential election (fitting I am writing this on Inauguration Day). However, there were many other surprises along the way. The biggest global shock was the result of the Brexit vote, the decision by the [...]
As the second quarter came to a close, the third quarter was shaping up to be a volatile one. However, after enduring the volatility of the Brexit vote right at the end of June, the continued speculation concerning the next Fed action, and the drama surrounding the National Conventions, the market was relatively quiet during the third quarter. While there [...]