With the election just a couple weeks away I wanted to spend this letter discussing some things to watch to see if an early winner can be determined, how the Senate race is shaping up and our expectations under different scenarios. Of course, a delayed or contested result is possible, sparked by a record number of mail-in ballots. A delayed [...]

This year we have all had ring-side seats to the battle of the economic effects of the virus-related lockdown vs the economic effects of the stimulus from the Fed and Congress (and the rest of the world). The first few rounds went to the virus, the latest few rounds went to the stimulus…so far it seems like a draw. But [...]

I am not often at a loss for words, but I have struggled with where to begin this letter. I do not want to just focus on the headwinds because there are some positive things going on, and the stock market is reacting to them. However, I also do not want to provide false hope as the virus is far [...]

Welcome to 2020! Is this the last year of the old decade or the first year of the new one? The standard, technical answer is that since there was no “Year 0,” this is the last year of the old decade. However, if language can evolve then so can the concept of time. Humans are drawn to round numbers (anyone watching for the DJIA to hit [...]

“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” The issues we discussed in the second quarter – the slowing US economy, even-worse global economy, US/China trade war, inverted yield curve, and geopolitical uncertainty – all continue to exist this quarter. Certainly, they have fluctuated and we have a few more issues that have cropped up, but overall the [...]

It is hard to avoid seeing signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Although still showing a slight expansion, key indicators for both manufacturing and services have declined. Looking at the global economy as a whole, there is now a slight contraction in manufacturing. The numbers excluding the US are even more dour, pushed lower by the impact of [...]

The first quarter was almost the exact opposite of the preceding quarter in terms of stock market returns. While the fourth quarter was one of the worst of the last ten years, the first quarter was one of the best. After hitting a low point on Christmas Eve, stocks have hardly hesitated and now sit just a few points below [...]

The final quarter of the year was a roller coaster in the stock market. After hitting record high levels in the first couple days of October, stocks sold off about 10%, then rallied, sold off, rallied again, and then had the worst December since The Great Depression. Of course, the ride continues as stocks have rallied about 11% off the [...]

Happy Halloween! Right in time for the season of spooks and specters came another October stock market selloff. October has a history of market selloffs, the most famous of which occurred in 1929 of course. October 19th was the 31st anniversary of Black Monday, the biggest one-day selloff in stock market history, in terms of percentage. And this month is [...]

Last quarter I discussed how the surge in volatility was due to the expectation for higher rates, the Trump tariffs, and the Facebook data breach.  All three of those are still contributing to market gyrations.  However the volatility has not stuck around, as measured by the VIX, which is a widely cited measure of stock market volatility.  While not yet [...]