I am not often at a loss for words, but I have struggled with where to begin this letter. I do not want to just focus on the headwinds because there are some positive things going on, and the stock market is reacting to them. However, I also do not want to provide false hope as the virus is far [...]
Welcome to 2020! Is this the last year of the old decade or the first year of the new one? The standard, technical answer is that since there was no “Year 0,” this is the last year of the old decade. However, if language can evolve then so can the concept of time. Humans are drawn to round numbers (anyone watching for the DJIA to hit [...]
“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” The issues we discussed in the second quarter – the slowing US economy, even-worse global economy, US/China trade war, inverted yield curve, and geopolitical uncertainty – all continue to exist this quarter. Certainly, they have fluctuated and we have a few more issues that have cropped up, but overall the [...]
I hope everyone has been enjoying the holidays. Ideally, this has been a time for focusing on friends and family, not the recent market volatility. We know, however, that it may be difficult to completely ignore the financial headlines. With that in mind, I thought I would send out our thoughts on the past few weeks’ volatility and how we [...]
Last week I had the opportunity to hear Dr. Ben Bernanke speak. As you likely know, he was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve during 2006-2014, and notably during the financial crisis ten years ago. I thought you might be interested in a summary of what he discussed. First on the economy: The expansion is 10 years old and will [...]
Another quarter of upward moving stock prices and multiple records being set by all the major indexes. The bull market is now officially the second longest in history, only being eclipsed by the 1982-1999 run. Not only that but just last week we reached the longest stretch in history without experiencing a 5% correction (now over 360 days) and this [...]
“The trend is your friend.” This is an old saying regarding the market and momentum. Another is, “Don’t fight the Fed.” These two axioms seem to be heading toward an Old West standoff. The major trends that continue to persist: Low volatility; the VIX, a common gauge of market volatility had its lowest close this quarter since December 1993, has [...]
What a difference a year makes! When we visited in April of 2016, we were coming off a volatile quarter that saw the stock market experience a 10% decline (in hindsight, the bottom of that particular correction), oil prices were only about 6 weeks removed from being just $26/bbl., the Fed had just raised rates for the first time in [...]
Welcome to 2017! Looking back at 2016 it really was the year of surprises. Of course the biggest in this country was the results of the Presidential election (fitting I am writing this on Inauguration Day). However, there were many other surprises along the way. The biggest global shock was the result of the Brexit vote, the decision by the [...]
As the second quarter came to a close, the third quarter was shaping up to be a volatile one. However, after enduring the volatility of the Brexit vote right at the end of June, the continued speculation concerning the next Fed action, and the drama surrounding the National Conventions, the market was relatively quiet during the third quarter. While there [...]