News & Commentary

2020 3rd Quarter Update

With the election just a couple weeks away I wanted to spend this letter discussing some things to watch to see if an early winner can be determined, how the Senate race is shaping up and our expectations under different scenarios. Of course, a delayed or contested result is possible, sparked by a record number of mail-in ballots. A delayed [...]

2020 2nd Quarter Update

This year we have all had ring-side seats to the battle of the economic effects of the virus-related lockdown vs the economic effects of the stimulus from the Fed and Congress (and the rest of the world). The first few rounds went to the virus, the latest few rounds went to the stimulus…so far it seems like a draw. But [...]

2020 1st Quarter Update

I am not often at a loss for words, but I have struggled with where to begin this letter. I do not want to just focus on the headwinds because there are some positive things going on, and the stock market is reacting to them. However, I also do not want to provide false hope as the virus is far [...]

2019 4th Quarter Update

Welcome to 2020! Is this the last year of the old decade or the first year of the new one? The standard, technical answer is that since there was no “Year 0,” this is the last year of the old decade. However, if language can evolve then so can the concept of time. Humans are drawn to round numbers (anyone watching for the DJIA to hit [...]

2019 3rd Quarter Update

“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” The issues we discussed in the second quarter – the slowing US economy, even-worse global economy, US/China trade war, inverted yield curve, and geopolitical uncertainty – all continue to exist this quarter. Certainly, they have fluctuated and we have a few more issues that have cropped up, but overall the [...]

Market Perspective: Trade War with China

In response to President Trump placing 10% tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese exports beginning September 1st, China allowed its currency to depreciate below the important psychological CNY¥7/USD$1 level, which shook global equities markets. In quick succession, the U.S. slapped China with the “currency manipulator” label, China announced it would stop buying U.S. agricultural products, the U.S. [...]

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